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Vedic's avatar

“A $5.76 billion increase would mean a surge of 30% in the trade deficit. At what level will the losses become “humungous” for the minister?”

This isn’t taking into account that India’s main import - oil, will likely become cheaper if China has to shift buying it elsewhere. India also will attract more FDI in any case scenario that China gets tariffed, and India will actually be able to raise its own exports.

India should absolutely do nothing and then benefit. This trade war hardly concerns India.

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RN BHASKAR's avatar

Dear Vedic,

Indiu has commited to boosting trade with USA to $500 billion. India has already been targetted. I am surprised you think India is not involved.

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Swaminathan's avatar

India remain as a marginalised nation for almost 50 years since independence. Post which we have gathered economic momentum and over the last 10 years we have gained respect internationally. Despite US sanctions, India went about buying oil from China. Just because we are negotiating BTA with US and not protesting, it does not mean we are bowing and getting marginalised.

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RN BHASKAR's avatar

God bless you for your views and your faith. Yes, India did become strong, especially because of Narasimha Rao and Vajpayee.

But watch the decline in FDI, GFCF, trade balance, and consumption and you will understand how India is weakening.

Now we are getting marginalized sed as well.

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Swaminathan's avatar

Thank you sir for your blessings and especially from a leading seasoned business journalist. But FDI over the last 10 years we have had USD 700B + which is almost 70% of the FDI in the last 25 years. There has been tapering of FDI flow over the last 2 years but it’s a cycle. Again consumption story is cycle but I do agree we are now in a grey patch. Globally, except USA consumption story has not played out in China or Europe. I believe, India lacks risk capital and that’s one of the reason we are lagging behind innovation and research. Please do correct if I am wrong anywhere in my views.

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RN BHASKAR's avatar

You have a right to be optimistic. I interpret this differently. When the numbers of people surrendering their passports to leave India doubles over x decade, I am worried. When HNIs quit India, I know that they feel they should be elsewhere. But when investments overseas by Indians close mb faster than within India, I am convinced that the investment climate is not right.

You are obviously welcome to your views. But I do not wish to debate this further.

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