I have just sent a comment to one of my subscribers, who thought my analysis in this article was wrong. Without disclosing the name, I reproduce the salient points.
• Listen to Kishor Mahbubani, former ambassador from Singapore to the UN and currently head of the ASEAN Foundation. He bemoans the fact that India does not belong to any trade cluster – neighter the ASEAN or the RCEP, and could remain isolated.
• For India kowtowing to the US, and losing its influence with the BRICS, listen to Pravin Sawhney about PM Modi’s meeting with Trump at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkljQD0e8AU
• Please also observe how India’s PM abstained from Russia’s 8 May celebrations, first because he was in a pre arranged visit to Saudi Arabia, and then because of the Pahalgam massacre. But he had time to address a rally in Bihar.
• Visiting countries, welcoming members do not make a country strong. Countries become strong when their balance of trade improves, their per capita income (not GDP) goes up, and FDI improves. Neither has none of these indicators in good health.
I am afraid you are mixing up the progress we made during the liberalisation of 2000 with current times. India was on an ascendant then. Ny 2008, our FDI peaked. Now it is at the lowest. See chart displayed at https://www.youtube.com/live/_9kjAPW0RCo?si=jdD7Algc_5qJnrFH.
GDP growth rates are down, unemployment is the highest among countries in this region, exports are flagging and now FDI too.
I don’t usually respond to biased articles on any platform, but this space is generally known for more balanced conversations
,so I’ll respond and keep myself on record. I don’t know the author personally, so I’ll give the benefit of doubt and assume this was shaped more by confirmation bias than deliberate misrepresentation.
This piece reads less like analysis and more like a narrative shaped by selective frustration. It ignores context, bypasses data, and interprets complex geopolitical decisions through an ideological lens. The idea that India is "losing friends" simply doesn’t hold up when you look at the numbers—total trade crossed $1.1 trillion in FY24, services exports grew over 12% to $383 billion, and defense exports have risen 34x in the last decade, nearing $2.76 billion. These aren’t indicators of decline, but of deeper global integration. The BRICS claim is also inaccurate, India continues to play a key role in its expansion and governance, having welcomed new members like the UAE and Egypt, and most recently led efforts at the BRICS Trade Ministers’ Meeting to push for the removal of export restrictions within the bloc to strengthen internal trade and supply chain resilience. That’s not passive membership, that’s shaping the agenda.
The article then romanticizes Vietnam’s foreign policy, but misses the structural risks Vietnam now faces, overdependence on FDI-driven manufacturing, exposure to U.S. tariffs, and reliance on Chinese inputs, which have made its economy vulnerable. That’s not a model India can or should copy blindly.
On Turkey, the framing is again disingenuous. Turkey has consistently questioned India’s sovereignty over Kashmir, blocked Indian interests at FATF, and aligned with Pakistan diplomatically. India scaling down engagement here is not ideology, it’s principle. And it hasn’t come at the cost of ties with the broader Islamic world. In fact, recent developments speak to the opposite: just weeks ago, Indonesia, Egypt, and Bahrain blocked Pakistan’s anti-India move at the OIC meet in Jakarta, underscoring growing alignment and goodwill from key Muslim-majority nations.
What’s more concerning is how the article draws links between domestic political incidents and foreign policy strategy, which are two different conversations. This kind of conflation, paired with emotionally loaded terms like “genuflecting before the West”, undermines credibility. The world isn’t neatly divided into allies and enemies; it's complex. India's approach may not be perfect, but it's far more balanced and data-aligned than what this piece suggests.
I am honoured to receive a response froma person as sagacious as you, even though you do not normally respond. You remind me of another ex-IAS officer who bears your surname who also harbours immense resentment against my writings. So, I am not surprised.
But coming to your observations, may I begin by educating you on some facts.
• Listen to Kishor Mahbubani, former ambassador from Singapore to the UN and currently head of the ASEAN Foundation. He bemoans the fact that India does not belong to any trade cluster – neighter the ASEAN or the RCEP, and could remain isolated.
• For India kowtowing to the US, and losing its influence with the BRICS, listen to Pravin Sawhney about PM Modi’s meeting with Trump at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkljQD0e8AU
• Please also observe how India’s PM abstained from Russia’s 8 May celebrations, first because he was in a pre arranged visit to Saudi Arabia, and then because of the Pahalgam massacre. But he had time to address a rally in Bihar.
• Visiting countries, welcoming members do not make a country strong. Countries become strong when their balance of trade improves, their per capita income (not GDP) goes up, and FDI improves. Neither has none of these indicators in good health.
I use data to back my assertions, not just views and impressions.
Finally, I do not wish to reply to any of your future response, because I have neither the time nor the desire, though you may have them in abundance. If you persis, I will have to report and block you.
I agree with your assessment but do you think the Govt or the people who have taken these decision have not foreseen the implications . You may not have seen the era when nothing was available like gas scooters food our rupee was weak and yet we survived very well . Business is not the only thing self respect and country ‘s image is also important . You have given examples of Vietnam and yet people of Vietnamese origin in USA do not want to go back . I am writing this with talks with Vietnamese here in USA . India that is Bharat has survived since centuries of loot exploitation and appeasement it will survive now too irrespective of trade with turkey etc .
When India was booming it was because of the liberalisation in the ‘nineties by PV Narasimha Rao, and then by Vajpayee in the early 2000s. The performance thereafter has been lacklustre, and during the past six years it has been disastrous.
Whether the government listens or not is not within my purview. I just present my analysis and let those better positioned to take the steps they deem fit.
Very analytical report. One's to be a little wise to learn from the past or the immediate neighbors. But a stupid or a mulish person can never learn from the history.
Many thanks. These Hindutvas don't realise that if they don't begin mending fences with the Muslims right away, they will have to go there with a begging bowl two decades later because they will have grown faster than us.
I have just sent a comment to one of my subscribers, who thought my analysis in this article was wrong. Without disclosing the name, I reproduce the salient points.
==========
• India’s GDP is on a downward trajectory, For more details download the image from https://asiaconverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-03-18_India-GDP-a-fudge.jpg. The datga has been taken from MOSPI and Mint. The URL has been provided.
• India’s FDI is on an even sharpter decline. For details download image from https://asiaconverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-24_low-FDI.jpg. Figures have been taken from the RBI and Mint.
• Listen to Kishor Mahbubani, former ambassador from Singapore to the UN and currently head of the ASEAN Foundation. He bemoans the fact that India does not belong to any trade cluster – neighter the ASEAN or the RCEP, and could remain isolated.
• For India kowtowing to the US, and losing its influence with the BRICS, listen to Pravin Sawhney about PM Modi’s meeting with Trump at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkljQD0e8AU
• Please also observe how India’s PM abstained from Russia’s 8 May celebrations, first because he was in a pre arranged visit to Saudi Arabia, and then because of the Pahalgam massacre. But he had time to address a rally in Bihar.
• For India’s declining balance of payments refer to the RBI data that has been captured in the image at https://asiaconverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-12_India-trade-data.png
• Visiting countries, welcoming members do not make a country strong. Countries become strong when their balance of trade improves, their per capita income (not GDP) goes up, and FDI improves. Neither has none of these indicators in good health.
I am afraid you are mixing up the progress we made during the liberalisation of 2000 with current times. India was on an ascendant then. Ny 2008, our FDI peaked. Now it is at the lowest. See chart displayed at https://www.youtube.com/live/_9kjAPW0RCo?si=jdD7Algc_5qJnrFH.
GDP growth rates are down, unemployment is the highest among countries in this region, exports are flagging and now FDI too.
I don’t usually respond to biased articles on any platform, but this space is generally known for more balanced conversations
,so I’ll respond and keep myself on record. I don’t know the author personally, so I’ll give the benefit of doubt and assume this was shaped more by confirmation bias than deliberate misrepresentation.
This piece reads less like analysis and more like a narrative shaped by selective frustration. It ignores context, bypasses data, and interprets complex geopolitical decisions through an ideological lens. The idea that India is "losing friends" simply doesn’t hold up when you look at the numbers—total trade crossed $1.1 trillion in FY24, services exports grew over 12% to $383 billion, and defense exports have risen 34x in the last decade, nearing $2.76 billion. These aren’t indicators of decline, but of deeper global integration. The BRICS claim is also inaccurate, India continues to play a key role in its expansion and governance, having welcomed new members like the UAE and Egypt, and most recently led efforts at the BRICS Trade Ministers’ Meeting to push for the removal of export restrictions within the bloc to strengthen internal trade and supply chain resilience. That’s not passive membership, that’s shaping the agenda.
The article then romanticizes Vietnam’s foreign policy, but misses the structural risks Vietnam now faces, overdependence on FDI-driven manufacturing, exposure to U.S. tariffs, and reliance on Chinese inputs, which have made its economy vulnerable. That’s not a model India can or should copy blindly.
On Turkey, the framing is again disingenuous. Turkey has consistently questioned India’s sovereignty over Kashmir, blocked Indian interests at FATF, and aligned with Pakistan diplomatically. India scaling down engagement here is not ideology, it’s principle. And it hasn’t come at the cost of ties with the broader Islamic world. In fact, recent developments speak to the opposite: just weeks ago, Indonesia, Egypt, and Bahrain blocked Pakistan’s anti-India move at the OIC meet in Jakarta, underscoring growing alignment and goodwill from key Muslim-majority nations.
What’s more concerning is how the article draws links between domestic political incidents and foreign policy strategy, which are two different conversations. This kind of conflation, paired with emotionally loaded terms like “genuflecting before the West”, undermines credibility. The world isn’t neatly divided into allies and enemies; it's complex. India's approach may not be perfect, but it's far more balanced and data-aligned than what this piece suggests.
Dear Tripathi JI
I am honoured to receive a response froma person as sagacious as you, even though you do not normally respond. You remind me of another ex-IAS officer who bears your surname who also harbours immense resentment against my writings. So, I am not surprised.
But coming to your observations, may I begin by educating you on some facts.
• India’s GDP is on a downward trajectory, For more details download the image from https://asiaconverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-03-18_India-GDP-a-fudge.jpg. The datga has been taken from MOSPI and Mint. The URL has been provided.
• India’s FDI is on an even sharpter decline. For details download image from https://asiaconverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-24_low-FDI.jpg. Figures have been taken from the RBI and Mint.
• Listen to Kishor Mahbubani, former ambassador from Singapore to the UN and currently head of the ASEAN Foundation. He bemoans the fact that India does not belong to any trade cluster – neighter the ASEAN or the RCEP, and could remain isolated.
• For India kowtowing to the US, and losing its influence with the BRICS, listen to Pravin Sawhney about PM Modi’s meeting with Trump at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkljQD0e8AU
• Please also observe how India’s PM abstained from Russia’s 8 May celebrations, first because he was in a pre arranged visit to Saudi Arabia, and then because of the Pahalgam massacre. But he had time to address a rally in Bihar.
• For India’s declining balance of payments refer to the RBI data that has been captured in the image at https://asiaconverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-12_India-trade-data.png
• Visiting countries, welcoming members do not make a country strong. Countries become strong when their balance of trade improves, their per capita income (not GDP) goes up, and FDI improves. Neither has none of these indicators in good health.
I use data to back my assertions, not just views and impressions.
Finally, I do not wish to reply to any of your future response, because I have neither the time nor the desire, though you may have them in abundance. If you persis, I will have to report and block you.
I agree with your assessment but do you think the Govt or the people who have taken these decision have not foreseen the implications . You may not have seen the era when nothing was available like gas scooters food our rupee was weak and yet we survived very well . Business is not the only thing self respect and country ‘s image is also important . You have given examples of Vietnam and yet people of Vietnamese origin in USA do not want to go back . I am writing this with talks with Vietnamese here in USA . India that is Bharat has survived since centuries of loot exploitation and appeasement it will survive now too irrespective of trade with turkey etc .
When India was booming it was because of the liberalisation in the ‘nineties by PV Narasimha Rao, and then by Vajpayee in the early 2000s. The performance thereafter has been lacklustre, and during the past six years it has been disastrous.
Whether the government listens or not is not within my purview. I just present my analysis and let those better positioned to take the steps they deem fit.
Wonderful. Very informative.
Very analytical report. One's to be a little wise to learn from the past or the immediate neighbors. But a stupid or a mulish person can never learn from the history.
Many thanks. These Hindutvas don't realise that if they don't begin mending fences with the Muslims right away, they will have to go there with a begging bowl two decades later because they will have grown faster than us.