Policy Watch
27 April 2026
By RN Bhaskar and Sakeena Bari Sayyed
Image: India Today
The news item in Al Jazeera on 24 April 2026 was cataclysmic -- https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/24/russian-troops-warships-in-india-soon-why-their-new-military-pact-matters. Much of India’s mainstream media has not covered this item. This agreement was negotiated over eight years and ratified by Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2025. The agreement became operational on 12 January and will remain in force for five years, with provisions for extension. Some of the very few reports on this subject are listed below:
The basic features about this pact called RELOS (Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support) are:
· Exact deployment limits (3,000 troops, 5 warships, 10 aircraft) – allows for deployment of troops on each other’s soil.
· Confirmation of operational status (January 2026)
· Access to Arctic ports — a major strategic gain for India
· Political context — U.S.–Pakistan tilt, Russia’s sanctions pressure
· Technical services — refuelling, repairs, maintenance
· Joint operations — exercises, HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief), training
· Long-term implications — strategic depth, Eurasian reach, Arctic mobility
This agreement was signed last year but has now been made operational. It facilitates the countries’ use of each other’s military bases, naval ports, and airfields during peace and wartime.
What makes this pact significant is that – for the first time since India got its independence -- the Indian government has allowed a foreign military to temporarily station soldiers on its soil. It also significantly enhances the bilateral ties between India and Russia. It effectively marginalises India’s ties with the US, which has been perceived as being closer to Pakistan. But there is more to this.
What could have caused such a change in India’s stance?
The Mizo connection
Nobody is talking. But it appears that the immediate trigger could have been recent developments in Mizoram – a state in Northeast India. Six Ukrainians and one American were arrested by India’s NIA (National Intelligence Agency). This by itself was significant because arrests are normally carried out by local constabulary. The involvement of the NIA suggests that it was much more than a simple arrest.
India Today (https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/american-mercenary-matthew-van-dyke-six-ukrainians-arrested-india-nia-myanmar-junta-2883373-2026-03-17) described the American as a mercenary names Matthew Van Dyke. The NIA alleged that the group had plans to train militants and supply weapons, including drones, in a suspected cross-border terror network.
Moreover, the arrests were not made at a single location. They were carried out across three airports — Kolkata, where VanDyke was apprehended, and Lucknow and Delhi, where three Ukrainian nationals were arrested at each location. Clearly, the group did not work from a single location. The Ukrainian nationals were identified as Petro Hurba, Taras Slyviak, Ivan Sukmanovskyi, Marian Stefankiv, Maksim Honcharuk, and Viktor Kaminskyi. The arrests occurred on Friday, March 13, 2026. According to several reports, the seven were initially detained by the NIA for entering India’s northeastern state of Mizoram without valid permits and then illegally crossing into Myanmar.
What this also suggests is that the activities of this group remained undetected for several months. They had built bases in Myanmar and had planned logistics, made deliveries of equipment and arms. And according to some sources, it was Russia that informed India about this group. But more on this a bit later.
Was this a CIA operation?
Significantly, Van Dyke was no ordinary American. He has been described as “a CIA asset who was once an al-Qaida affiliate, VanDyke is a dangerous character who can’t stop playing war (https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/nia-arrests-seven-foreigners-matthew-vandyke-nia-custody-cia-asset-al-qaida-affiliate-freedom-fighter-pow-2883367-2026-03-17).
India Today further says, Van Dyke’s “business card, if he ever had one, would read something like: Freedom Fighter. Documentary Filmmaker. Former POW. Trainer of Rebels. Now Guest of the NIA, Matthew Aaron VanDyke, 46, American, Baltimore-born, Georgetown-educated, has spent his entire adult life inserting himself into other people’s wars with the conviction of a man who genuinely believes his passport makes him a protagonist and not a problem. . . . Moreover, other reports point to VanDyke’s personal website which states that he had participated in the Iraq War and Libya’s civil war. He is the founder of a Washington, DC-based consulting firm called Sons of Liberty International. The organisation’s website says it “provides free security consulting and training services to vulnerable populations to enable them to defend themselves against terrorist and insurgent groups.”
India’s whitewash
But India tried to downplay this incident. Even though he was arrested by the NIA, the government finally broke its silence on Friday 27 March 2026 when Amit Shah, India’s Home Minister stated that the arrested group posed no security threat to India. He was quoted as saying (https://northeasttoday.in/northeast/no-threat-to-india-from-us-ukraine-citizens-in-mizoram-amit-shah/). “They were caught as they were planning to transit through Mizoram into Myanmar, where insurgent bases would be used to impart training to the Ukrainians. They did not take the necessary advance permit required by foreigners to enter Mizoram,” he said.
But Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/why-has-india-arrested-us-ukrainian-nationals-under-anti-terror-laws#:~:text=Who%20has%20been%20arrested?%20According%20to%20Indian,Kaminskyi%20Viktor,%20who%20are%20all%20Ukrainian%20citizens.) said that the seven were “allegedly entering India’s northeast region without permits and crossing to neighbouring Myanmar to train armed groups in drone warfare.” It said that it was not clear if they were on their way to Myanmar or returning from the country.
The news report also added that “Local police also arrested two more American tourists on Saturday for flying drones near Coast Guard headquarters in the southern city of Kochi – where India is harbouring sailors from an Iranian ship that it hosted in military exercises in February.”
Worrying facts
Shah’s statements are at odds with other reports. For instance, Indian Express (https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/6-ukrainians-american-in-nia-net-supply-of-drones-to-insurgents-illegal-entry-in-mizoram-10587611/?ref=latestnews_hp) reports that the group allegedly conspired to carry out terrorist activities against India. They were “training ethnic armed groups and facilitating the supply of drone consignments from Europe to insurgent-linked networks.”
It added that “The seven men were arrested mainly under Section 18 (punishment for being part of a terrorist conspiracy) of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention)Act (UAPA), along with other relevant sections. The NIA’s FIR stated that the six arrested Ukrainians were part of a group of 14 nationals from the country who had entered India on tourist visas on separate dates, and had flown to Guwahati.”
The Indian Express report also said that “The group allegedly crossed the border illegally into Myanmar with the intention of carrying out a “pre-scheduled training for Myanmar-based Ethnic Armed Groups (EAGs),” the NIA said in its FIR. These EAGs, according to the NIA, are known to support insurgent organisations operating in India in the domain of “drone warfare, drone operations, assembly, and jamming technology etc., targeting the Myanmar Junta . . . The sources said that the investigation has found evidence suggesting that multiple consignments of drones from Europe were delivered by the accused persons to individuals and groups in Mizoram . . . The NIA submitted before the court that the accused persons have disclosed during interrogation that they were in ‘direct touch and abetted in their terrorist illegal activities by unknown terrorists carrying AK47 Rifles’.”
Did the Mizo arrests spook India?
So, the intelligence tip-off from the Russians spook India?
If true, it means that the US was trying to destabilise India by fragmenting it (do watch our podcast on Splintering India at
).
The tie-up with Russia had already given India the first visible benefit. The ‘terrorist’ group had been identified and seven of them had been arrested by the NIA.
Indi was obviously aware about how riots in Bangladesh erupted just wafter the former Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, refused to allow the US to build a base at one of that country’s islands. The CIA is known to do this. The most memorable is the Maidan uprising in Ukraine that took place between 21 November 2013 to February 2014. It had been hailed as a public uprising though later it came to be known that the CIA did all the arrangements and even the funding. Ditto with the aborted uprising in Iran in January 2026, where Starlink terminals were given to key leaders of the planned insurgency. Once again, China and Russia helped Iran break the Starlink signals and identify the persons who had taken possession of them. Even in this attempted insurgency in Mizoram, people were trained on how to use Starlink terminals. It is possible that such terminals were also supplied to some of the locals.
Moreover, it is well known that India was quite miffed by repeated US snubs to India, and to Modi
· In February 2025, Modi was snubbed by being told to import goods from India (https://asiaconverge.com/2026/02/us-trade-agreement-india-capitulates/).
· He was again snubbed by Trump declaring that he had arranged for a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in the skirmish following the Pahalgam flareup (https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/trump-again-claims-he-pushed-india-pakistan-to-peace-through-trade-pressure-tariff-threats/article70143239.ece).
· Thereafter, the US allowed its submarine to torpedo an Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean, disregardful of the fact that two ships from Iran had been India’s guests at the naval show at Vishakhapatnam.
· There were also dictats that India should not purchase oil from Iran and from Russia.
Was the discovery that the US was abetting a coup in Mizoram thus the last straw? Was the US trying to overthrow a rather ‘inconvenient’ Modi government??
The real reasons are not clear. But the defence pact does throw up several issues. And this could, in turn, also unleash major consequences.
Possible consequences
We are now entering the realm of speculation. But given past actions by the US in different territories in the world, we would like to highlight some things that India should be wary of.
1. Given the state of disaffection in several border states (
), expect the US to try financing a coup to destabilise and even overthrow the Modi government. West Bengal – post elections – could also be a flashpoint.
2. Expect Russia to help the Indian government identify key officials in the civil and defence staff who have pronounced US loyalties and could be perceived as a national risk. It will also help the government ensure that key defence and civil officers are not ‘bribed’ by the US or by the CIA in the same way as was done with the Syrian defences recently. How the government reacts to this information is not known.
3. Expect Russia to help India point to officials and elected representatives who are the most vulnerable to blackmail from the US. Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s external affairs minister, spoke about this bluntly at a public meeting in Delhi -- at the 8th edition of the Raisina Dialogue, held from March 2–4, 2023 (timeline 17:45 to 2-:22 at
). Once again, how the Indian government reacts to such information remains uncertain.
4. The US could begin imposing curbs on Indians working with US companies relating to AI, and IT services. That will not be easy because the US will not find the numbers of IT professionals at the price-point at which it gets Indians. The shock of getting Indians to leave could be near catastrophic for the US.
5. Expect arms purchases from the West to slow down, as India begins procuring arms from Russia instead. That will significantly improve India’s balance sheets.
6. Expect Russia to work on the plan Xi Jinping had proposed to India during his meetings with PM Modi at Mahabalipuram, India, in 2023 (when he visited India in 2023 (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/xi-mooted-trilateral-partnership-with-pak/article29713793.ece). Russia is in a position to persuade China to rein in Pakistan. Russia could also help ease investment flows from China to India. That in turn could lead to discussions on how to settle the border disputes between India and China.
7. A lot will depend on the way India tries to harmonise social tensions that have the potential of fragmenting India. If India is not careful, these fissures could be used by the US to actually dismember India.
The pact with Russia is therefore extremely significant. It will prevent India from being bullied and insulted by the US. It will also help India contain its import bill by purchasing more effective and superior military technology from Russia. This will also be in addition to oil imports, where India could hopefully benefit from discounted prices once again.
The pact with Russia could actually change geopolitics, as Central and Southeast Asia begin to veer away from the US.
Trump may finally get trumped.
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My latest podcast is the second of a three-part series – tunder the umbrella heading “Options before the government - II”. This podcast is about the myopic and blighted vision of India’s policy You can find it at
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Our weekly “Breaking News” will return on 9 May 2026.
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The important part is not “India chooses Russia over America.”
It is that sovereignty is becoming logistical.
Ports, bases, airfields, repair rights, Arctic access, intelligence channels, these are the new treaty layer beneath diplomatic language.